External validation of prognostic models among cancer patients undergoing emergency colorectal surgery

Ertan, Tamer; Yoldas, Omer; Kılıc, Yusuf Alper; Kılıc, Mehmet; Göcmen, Erdal; Koc, Mahmut; Tez, Mesut

doi:10.1016/j.amjsurg.2007.03.012

« Previous Next »The American Journal of Surgery
Volume 195, Issue 4 , Pages 439-441, April 2008

External validation of prognostic models among cancer patients undergoing emergency colorectal surgery

Tamer Ertan, M.D.
- Department of Fifth Surgery, Ankara Numune Education and Research Hospital, Ankara, Turkey
Omer Yoldas, M.D.
- Department of Fifth Surgery, Ankara Numune Education and Research Hospital, Ankara, Turkey
- Corresponding author. Tel.: +011-90 312 508 43 02; fax: +011-90 312 310 34 60.
Yusuf Alper Kılıc, M.D.
- Department of Surgery, Hacettepe University School of Medicine, Ankara, Turkey
Mehmet Kılıc, M.D.
- Department of Fifth Surgery, Ankara Numune Education and Research Hospital, Ankara, Turkey
Erdal Göcmen, M.D.
- Department of Fifth Surgery, Ankara Numune Education and Research Hospital, Ankara, Turkey
Mahmut Koc, M.D.
- Department of Fifth Surgery, Ankara Numune Education and Research Hospital, Ankara, Turkey
Mesut Tez, M.D.
- Department of Fifth Surgery, Ankara Numune Education and Research Hospital, Ankara, Turkey

Received 10 January 2007; received in revised form 20 March 2007 published online 28 February 2008.

Abstract

Background

The aim of this study was to evaluate the predictive accuracy of different scoring systems on patients undergoing emergency colorectal surgery.

Methods

The Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation II or III, the Simplified Acute Physiology Score II, the Mortality Probability Model II, and the Colo-rectal POSSUM scoring systems were applied to 102 patients who underwent colorectal resection for cancer. Validation of scoring systems was tested by assessing calibration and discrimination. Calibration was assessed using Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness-of-fit test and the corresponding calibration curves. Evaluation of the discriminative capability of both models was performed using receiver-operating characteristic curve analysis.

Results

Overall, 17 deaths occurred. The Simplified Acute Physiology Score II showed good calibration (x² = 1.079, P = .982) and discrimination (areas under the receiver-operating characteristic curve .83).