The American Journal of Surgery
Volume 198, Issue 1 , Pages 31-38 , July 2009

Mortality rate prediction by Physiological and Operative Severity Score for the Enumeration of Mortality and Morbidity (POSSUM), Portsmouth POSSUM and Colorectal POSSUM and the development of new scoring systems in Chinese colorectal cancer patients

  • Lihuan Ren, M.D.

      Affiliations

    • Department of General Surgery, Peking University, Third Hospital, 49# Hua Yuan North Rd., Haidian District, Beijing 100083, China
  • ,
  • Amit Mani Upadhyay, M.D.

      Affiliations

    • Department of General Surgery, Peking University, Third Hospital, 49# Hua Yuan North Rd., Haidian District, Beijing 100083, China
  • ,
  • Liang Wang, M.D.

      Affiliations

    • Department of General Surgery, Peking University, Third Hospital, 49# Hua Yuan North Rd., Haidian District, Beijing 100083, China
  • ,
  • Lei Li, M.D.

      Affiliations

    • Department of General Surgery, Peking University, Third Hospital, 49# Hua Yuan North Rd., Haidian District, Beijing 100083, China
  • ,
  • Jingqiao Lu, Ph.D.

      Affiliations

    • Center for Clinical Epidemiological Research, Peking University, Third Hospital, Beijing, China
  • ,
  • Wei Fu, M.D.

      Affiliations

    • Department of General Surgery, Peking University, Third Hospital, 49# Hua Yuan North Rd., Haidian District, Beijing 100083, China
    • Corresponding Author InformationCorresponding author: Tel.: +86-10-62010334; fax: +86-10-62010334

Received 16 March 2008 ,Revised 24 June 2008

References 

  1. Copeland GP, Jones D, Walters M. POSSUM: a scoring system for surgical audit. Br J Surg. 1991;78:356–360
  2. Yii MK, Ng KJ. Risk-adjusted surgical audit with the POSSUM in a developing country (Physiological and Operative Severity Score for the enUmeration of Mortality and morbidity). Br J Surg. 2002;89:110–113
  3. Tekkis PP, Kessaris N, Kocher HM, et al. Evaluation of POSSUM and P-POSSUM scoring systems in patients undergoing colorectal surgery. Br J Surg. 2003;90:340–345
  4. Klotz HP, Candinas D, Platz A, et al. Preoperative risk assessment in elective general surgery. Br J Surg. 1996;83:1788–1791
  5. Wijesinghe LD, Mahmood T, Scott DJ, et al. Comparison of POSSUM and the Portsmouth predictor equation for predicting death following vascular surgery. Br J Surg. 1998;85:209–212
  6. Neary WD, Heather BP, Earnshaw JJ. The Physiological and Operative Severity Score for the enUmeration of Mortality and morbidity (POSSUM). Br J Surg. 2003;90:157–165
  7. Whiteley MS, Prytherch DR, Higgins B, et al. An evaluation of the POSSUM surgical scoring system. Br J Surg. 1996;83:812–815
  8. Prytherch DR, Whiteley MS, Higgins B, et al. POSSUM and Portsmouth POSSUM for predicting mortality (Physiological and Operative Severity Score for the enUmeration of Mortality and morbidity). Br J Surg. 1998;85:1217–1220
  9. Tekkis PP, Prytherch DR, Kocher HM, et al. Development of a dedicated risk-adjustment scoring system for colorectal surgery (colorectal POSSUM). Br J Surg. 2004;91:1174–1182
  10. Stephen JB, William JC. Validation of the CR-POSSUM risk-adjusted scoring system for major colorectal cancer surgery in a single center. Dis Colon Rectum. 2006;50:192–196
  11. Senagore AJ, Warmuth AJ, Delaney CP, et al. POSSUM, p-POSSUM, and Cr-POSSUM: implementation issues in a United States health care system for prediction of outcome for colon cancer resection. Dis Colon Rectum. 2004;47:1435–1441
  12. Davila JA, Rabeneck L, Berger DH, et al. Postoperative 30-day mortality following surgical resection for colorectal cancer in veterans: changes in the right direction. Digest Dis Sci. 2005;50:1722–1728
  13. Ouellette JR, Small DG, Termuhlen PM, et al. Evaluation of Charlson-age comorbidity index as predictor of morbidity and mortality in patients with colorectal carcinoma. J Gastrointest Surg. 2004;8:1061–1067
  14. Staib L, Link KH, Blatz A, et al. Surgery of colorectal cancer: surgical morbidity and five- and ten-year results in 2400 patients—monoinstitutional experience. World J Surg. 2002;26:59–66
  15. Al-Homoud S, Purkayastha S, Aziz O, et al. Evaluating operative risk in colorectal cancer surgery: ASA and POSSUM-based predictive models. Surg Oncol. 2004;13:83–92
  16. Ferjani AM, Griffin D, Stallard N, et al. A newly devised scoring system for prediction of mortality in patients with colorectal cancer: a prospective study. Lancet Oncol. 2007;8:317–322
  17. Guillou PJ, Quirke P, Thorpe H, et al. Short-term endpoints of conventional versus laparoscopic assisted surgery in patients with colorectal cancer (MRC CLASICC trial): multicentre, randomised controlled trial. Lancet. 2005;365:1718–1726
  18. Fazio VW, Tekkis PP, Remzi F, et al. Assessment of operative risk in colorectal cancer surgery: the Cleveland Clinic Foundation Colorectal Cancer Model. Dis Colon Rectum. 2004;47:2015–2024
  19. Slim K, Panis Y, Alves A, et al. Predicting postoperative mortality in patients undergoing colorectal surgery. World J Surg. 2006;30:100–106
  20. Vather R, Zargar-Shoshtari K, Adegbolas , et al. Comparison of the POSSUM, P-POSSUM and CR-POSSUM scoring systems as predictors of postoperative mortality in patients undergoing major colorectal surgery. Aust N Z J Surg. 2006;76:812–816
  21. Tez M, Yoldas O, Gocmen E, et al. Evaluation of P-POSSUM and CR-POSSUM scores in patients with colorectal cancer undergoing resection. World J Surg. 2006;30:2266–2269
  22. Bennett-Guerrero E, Hyam JA, Shaefi S, et al. Comparison of P-POSSUM risk-adjusted mortality rates after surgery between patients in the USA and the UK. Br J Surg. 2003;90:1593–1598
  23. Law WL, Lam SM, Lee YM. Evaluation of outcome of laparoscopic colorectal resection with POSSUM, Portsmouth POSSUM and colorectal POSSUM. Br J Surg. 2006;93:94–99
  24. Tao ZY, Sun J, Zhang XW, et al. Clinical significance of forecasting the operation risk of the senile gastrointestinal tumor patients by the POSSUM grade [Chinese]. Lin Chuang Wai Ke Za Zhi. 2006;14:420–422
  25. Department of Health. Hospital episode statistics (Main operations 2000–01). http://www.doh.gov.uk/hes/free data/ index.htmlAccessed: July 26, 2003
  26. Callum KG, Gray AJG, Hoile RW, et al. Appendix A. In: Then and Now: The 2000 Report of the National Confidential Enquiry into Perioperative Deaths: Data Collection April 1, 1998—March 31, 1999. London 2000;
  27. Dukes CE. The classification of cancer of the rectum. J Pathol Bacteriol. 1932;35:323–332
  28. Hanley JA, McNeil BJ. The meaning and use of the area under a receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve. Radiology. 1982;143:29–36
  29. Hanley JA, McNeil BJ. A method of comparing the areas under receiver operating characteristic curves derived from the same cases. Radiology. 1983;148:839–843
  30. Hosmer DW, Lemeshow S. Applied Logistic Regression. 2nd ed.. New York: John Wiley; 2000;
  31. Copeland GP, Sagar P, Brennan J, et al. Risk-adjusted analysis of surgeon performance: a 1-year study. Br J Surg. 1995;82:408–411
  32. Sagar PM, Hartley MN, Mancey-Jones B, et al. Comparative audit of colorectal resection with the POSSUM scoring system. Br J Surg. 1994;81:1492–1494
  33. Sagar PM, Hartley MN, MacFie J, et al. Comparison of individual surgeon's performance: risk-adjusted analysis with POSSUM scoring system. Dis Colon Rectum. 1996;39:654–658
  34. Tekkis PP, Kocher HM, Bentley AE, et al. Operative mortality rates among surgeons: comparison of POSSUM and p-POSSUM scoring systems in gastrointestinal surgery. Dis Colon Rectum. 2000;43:1528–1534
  35. Rosen L, Stasik J, Reed J, et al. Variations in colon and rectal surgical mortality: comparison of specialties with a state-legislated database. Dis Colon Rectum. 1996;39:129–135
  36. Longo WE, Virgo KS, Johnson FE, et al. Risk factors for morbidity and mortality after colectomy for colon cancer. Dis Colon Rectum. 2000;43:83–91
  37. Nicole O, Thomas M, Balasubamanian V, et al. Evaluation of the P-POSSUM mortality prediction algorithm in Australian surgical intensive care unit patients. Aust N Z J Surg. 2002;72:735–738
  38. Tekkis PP, Poloniecki JD, Thompson MR. The ACPGBI Colorectal Cancer Study (Part A: Unadjusted Outcomes). The Association of Coloproctology of Great Britain and Ireland; 2002;
  39. Prytherch DR, Beard JD, Ridler BF. Vascular Surgical Society operative outcome study: preoperative physiology predicts outcome (abstr). Br J Surg. 2000;87:507–508

PII: S0002-9610(08)00780-0

doi: 10.1016/j.amjsurg.2008.06.044

The American Journal of Surgery
Volume 198, Issue 1 , Pages 31-38 , July 2009