Highlights
- 1.Early recurrence after liver resection (LR) for patients with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) carries a poor prognosis.
- 2.We have developed a simple nomogram with preoperative image tumor characteristics and alpha-fetoprotein (AFP) levels to predict the early recurrence of HCC after LR.
Abstract
Background
To assess preoperative image tumor characteristics and alpha-fetoprotein (AFP) levels
to predict early recurrence after liver resection (LR) for hepatocellular carcinoma
(HCC).
Methods
This retrospective study's enrolled patients underwent LR for newly diagnosed HCC
between 2011 and 2018. Multivariate logistic regression analyses using the Akaike
information criterion were adopted to construct a nomogram to predict early recurrence
(i.e. recurrence within 1 year). The performance of this nomogram was evaluated using
calibration plots with bootstrapping.
Results
Early recurrence was identified in 99 patients (11.2%). Four predictive factors, namely
an AFP level of >400 ng/mL; image-diagnosed tumor characteristics, including a tumor
size of > 5 cm; vascular invasion; and multiple tumors were adopted in the final model
of the early recurrence nomogram, with a concordance index of 0.67. The calibration
plots showed good agreement between the nomogram predictions and the actual observations
of early recurrence.
Conclusion
We have developed a simple nomogram with preoperative image tumor characteristics
and AFP levels to predict the early recurrence of HCC after LR.
Keywords
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Article info
Publication history
Published online: August 11, 2021
Accepted:
August 9,
2021
Received in revised form:
July 19,
2021
Received:
June 2,
2021
Identification
Copyright
© 2021 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.
